Rising Sun?

The recent announcement that Japan is increasing its defence budget for the first time in 10 years was predictably met by disapproval from their Chinese neighbours. 


This increase in budget is designed to fund a new shopping spree by the Japanese Self Defence Forces, including drones, VF-22 Ospreys, Aegis Destroyers, amphibious vehicles and new submarines as well as the yet unreleased F-35 A joint strike fighter. This follows the recent launch in August of of the JDS Izumo, a so-called "helicopter destroyer", by the Japanese Self Defence Navy - their largest warship since the Second World War. A point that the Chinese were quick to pick up on, arguing that the huge ship could be converted into a fully fledged aircraft carrier (the Izumo is only 20m shorter than the French Charles de Gaulle). 

All of this has helped stoke the flames of China and Japan's territorial dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Isles in the South China Sea. China has many other unresolved territorial claims in the Yellow, South China and East China Seas, but what's so significant about this dispute in particular? 

The answer is that Japan is being increasingly assertive in providing for its own security and pushing the limits of their own post-war Peace Constitution, imposed by the US in 1945. This was designed to ensure that Japan would never again possess the ability to project power abroad (read invade its neighbours again). But under Shinzo Abe, Japan is re-evaluating its security role in the region and looking both to increase its military self-reliance and reduce its dependency on the US. 

Hence Japan's latest shopping list, which would provide Japan with power projection capabilities that it has not possessed until now, despite fielding the second largest navy in the Pacific. Shinzo Abe has himself called for changes to the Constitution to make this possible. Intriguingly, the US seem to have shifted their position too - having been the prime architects of the military neutering of Japan in 1945, they are now being conspicuously silent.  

Although direct military confrontation between Japan and the PRC seems unlikely, the current Cold War style stand-off does raise some interesting questions about the future of security in Asia. The rise of nationalism in both China and Japan will no doubt escalate tensions further, potentially leading to an arms race in Asia (the region is already the fastest-growing in terms of defence spending). Should that happen, people tend to look to the US to maintain the status quo - but how long will that last if America continues its seemingly unconditional support of Japanese military expansionism, thus backing the Chinese into a dangerous corner?


Despite pledges of Japanese aid towards other ASEAN countries, it is unclear yet how Japan's renewed nationalistic rhetoric and posturing will be accepted elsewhere. Other Asian nations may well be afraid of China's military expansionism, but that does not signify they are ready to accept Japan as the key Asian alternative. The experience of Japanese nationalism has left its mark on Asia, just as German nationalism did in Europe, and many have not forgiven or forgotten the Japanese for their actions during colonial rule (a feeling exacerbated perhaps by Japan's own half-hearted mea culpas on the matter).